On the eve of the final of the Coupe de France between Lyon and Montpellier, the predictions seem largely favorable to Olympique Lyonnais. A stronger feeling after Lyon's demonstration in the Champions League against PSG. Yet the Montpellier will compete well this final with the certainty of being able to win. Are they right to hope? Necessarily...

Montpellier is the only French team unbeaten against OL this season. It is sometimes necessary to cling to a statistic to believe in his chances and Montpellier is "lucky" to have played OL only once this season: a 0-0 conceded at Grammont, before returning to OL in Lyon on May 21st for the last day of the 2015/2016 season.

Still on the side of the "stats", if we look at the last finals of the Coupe de France, the record is less flattering for the club of Herault. Since 2009, and the last win in Montpellier Cup, the MHSC has played four finals, each time lost, the last two (2012 and 2015) against Olympique Lyonnais.

A Coupe de France whose Lyonnaises are the holders of the title. In 2015, they won the final against Montpellier on the score of 2 goals to 1

OL have been in this competition for four years now and no team seems to be able to challenge supremacy, at least in the game. OL, which in recent years has been out of the competition only on fire goals: against Montpellier (2009 and at the 2006 and 2007 finals), Paris (2010) or Juvisy (2011).

A penalty shootout that has become the haunt of the Lyonnaises in the Coupe de France. Since 2004, and the connection of FC Lyon Olympique Lyonnais club Rhone has never won a cup game when it went to the penalty shootout. A case happened happened six times since 2004 and has appeared three times in a row between 2004 and 2007, with two defeats against Montpellier.

Montpellier has already won a final of the Coupe de France, and even two against Olympique Lyonnais, it was in 2006 and 2007 each time at the end of a shot-at-goal session.

This confirms a feeling, the penalty shootout would be the best chance for Montpellier to get by. First because it was on the same shootout that Montpellier had made the difference against PSG with a Solene Durand capable of three Parisian attempts. Then because Lyon has conceded only one goal against Juvisy, Paris and Montpellier this season, another statistic that comes to undermine the idea that it would be possible to beat Lyon in the game.

Crisis exit
However, Montpellier would be wrong not to "play" this final and wait for the penalty shootout. Indeed, the Héraultaises are now in a good phase after having a difficult start 2016. In the first leg, Montpellier had managed to get positive results against his three rivals Lyon, Paris and Juvisy before conceding his first home defeat against PSG (2-1) in January.

Andressa Alves and Cristiane, the two brazilians in the defeat of Montpellier against PSG (2-1) last January in Grammont.

An underperformance that will be followed by other disappointing results against Saint-Étienne (1-1) and then two defeats in a row in March against Albi (2-1) and at home against Juvisy (3-1) . Results that will result in Montpellier win the race in second place and the Champions League. If this third place (which is not yet assured) matches the objectives of the beginning of the season set by the club, it may seem bitter given the sequence of events.

Yet Montpellier seemed to have got the better of his demons. First with this qualification in the semifinals at the expense of the PSG but also with convincing performances in the championships especially against Rodez and Soyaux, two teams that have performed well this season in D1.

Laetitia Tonazzi against Camille Abily during the 0-0 between Lyon and Montpellier last December.

This revival of form that allows Montpellier to approach the final with more certainty especially on the offensive, the Montpellier having scored 17 goals in their last four meetings. Marie-Charlotte Léger, Sofia Jakobsson, Valérie Gauvin, Lætitia Tonazzi, as many players who will take part in the defensive tasks but who will also have heart to deceive the vigilance of the rear-guard Lyonnaise.

OL: A triplet or nothing!
On the Lyon side, this final is the second in a series of meetings that will lead OL to a new hat-trick. In this context, it is difficult to expect a Lyon team to take this final lightly. At the Stade des Alpes, the Lyonnaises will be practically at home with a short trip for the fans who will make the trip tomorrow in Grenoble. A final where it will be despite all the OL players who will be under pressure.

Sakina Karchaoui and Elodie Thomis. The corridors will be one of the areas where the difference could be side Lyonnais. Vigilance obligatory for the lateral ones of Montpellier.

Grandissimes favorites, they will have to demonstrate on a match of their superiority and make the difference in regulation time to avoid the lottery penalties. On this point, the double confrontation against Paris showed that Lyon was able to adapt tactically to face a team regrouped and vary the proposals of offensive play to find the opening towards the opposite goal.

This is the challenge of this final where the two teams will come to win this trophy but where it will be paradoxically the Lyonnaises more than the Montpellier who will have to do everything to win this game.